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在现代商业中，高新技术乐观派与悲观派构成了激烈对峙的两大阵营。 乐观主义者声称，世界正处于技术驱动的复兴中。各技术巨头相互竞争，力求推出最优秀的产品。商学院教授则认为，唯一需要担心的是，当机器发展为超级智能，人类该如何应对。 悲观主义者则反讥道，以上言论不过是高谈弘论：虽然少部分公司的确运行得不错，但经济已陷入停滞。哈佛大学的拉里·萨默斯就此提出了“长期停滞”。更多CEO比起商业发展，更看重可预测回报。 你是高新技术乐观派还是悲观派？  路#Business: Techno wars#  路An earlier sunny mood about technology and innovation has given way to pessimism. The most striking battle in modern business pits the techno-optimists against the techno-pessimists. The first group argues that the world is in the middle of a technology-driven renaissance. Tech CEOs compete with each other for superlatives. 在技术与创新领域，悲观主义取代了先前的乐观态度。在现代商业中，高新技术乐观派与悲观派构成了激烈对峙的两大阵营。乐观主义者声称，世界正处于技术驱动的复兴中。各技术巨头相互竞争，力求推出最优秀的产品。 Business professors say that our only problem will be what to do with the people when the machines become super-intelligent. The pessimists retort that this is froth: a few firms may be doing wonderfully but the economy is stuck. Larry Summers of Harvard University talks about secular stagnation. Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, says that the American economy has eaten all the low-hanging fruits of modern history and got sick. 商学院教授则认为，唯一需要担心的是，当机器发展为超级智能，人类该如何应对。悲观主义者则反讥道，以上言论不过是高谈弘论：虽然少部分公司的确运行得不错，但经济已陷入停滞。哈佛大学的拉里·萨默斯就此提出了“长期停滞”。乔治梅森大学的泰勒·科文认为，美国经济已耗尽现代史上一切唾手可得的成果而趋于病态。 Until recently the prize for the most gloom-laden book on the modern economy has gone to Robert Gordon of Northwestern University. In “The Rise and Fall of American Growth”, published in January, Mr. Gordon argues that the IT revolution is a minor diversion compared with the inventions that accompanied the second industrial one—electricity, motor cars and aeroplanes — which changed lives profoundly. 唱衰现代经济势的问鼎之作是1月出版的西北大学罗伯特·戈登写的。戈登在《美国兴衰》一书中指出，第二次工业革命中，电力、汽车和飞机都曾给日常生活带来翻天覆地的变化，而IT革命不过是小巫见大巫。 The current information upheaval, by contrast, is merely altering a narrow range of activities.Now a new book, “The Innovation Illusion” by Fredrik Erixon and Bjorn Weigel, presents a still more pessimistic vision. Messrs Erixon and Weigel write that the very engine of capitalist growth, the creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter, is kaput.Aside from a handful of stars such as Google and Amazon, they point out, capitalism is ageing fast. 近年来，人们获取信息的方式发生了剧变，但也仅仅是让原本就为数不多的方式增添了些新花样。弗雷德里克·埃里克松和比约·恩格尔现发行了他们的新书《创新的假象》，书中表达了更为悲观的看法。他们在书中写道，资本主义发展的“核心引擎”(約瑟夫·熊彼特曾称其为创造性破坏)已运作失常。他们指出，除了如谷歌和亚马逊等少数精英公司仍发展良好，资本主义整体已迅速老化。 Europe’s 100 most valuable firms were founded more than 40 years ago. Even America, which is more entrepreneurial, is succumbing to middle-aged spread. The proportion of mature firms, or those 11 years old or more, rose from a third of all firms in 1987 to almost half in 2012, and the number of startups fell between 2001 and 2011. People who extol free markets often blame such stagnation on excessive regulation. That has certainly played its part. 纵观欧洲100家大公司，绝大部分都建立在40年前。即使是更具创业精神的美国也难以抵挡公司中年化现象的蔓延。从1981到2012年间，资深公司(已建立11年或更长时间)由占公司总数的1/3上升到占一半左右，而2001到2011年间，新公司数量则一直下降。自由市场的支持者经常把这种经济停滞归咎于政府管制过多。这种说法的确有一定道理。 But the authors argue that stagnation has most to do with the structure of capitalism itself. Companies are no longer actually owned by adventurous capitalists but by giant institutions such as the Vanguard Group (with more than $3 trillion under management) which constantly buy and sell slivers of ownership for anonymous investors. These institutions are more interested in predictable returns than in enterprise. It is not all Mark Zuckerbergs at the top, the authors posit. 然而，《创新的假象》的作者则认为，这种停滞与资本主义自身的结构有更大关系。事实上，公司已不再由具冒险精神的资本家控制，而是由像先锋集团(the Vanguard Group)这种大型机构掌控。该公司资产逾3万亿美元，不断为匿名投资者购买和出售所有权。比起商业发展，他们更看重可预测回报。作者认为并非所有高层都像马克·扎克伯格一样。 The big firms are answering the call for predictability by hiring corporate bureaucrats. These people shy away from risky investments in new technology. After rising relentlessly as a share of GDP in 1950-2000, investment in IT began declining in the early 2000s. Instead of shaking up markets, bureaucratic CEOs focus on squeezing the most out of their sunk costs and fight to defend niches. They hoard cash, buy back their firms’shares and reinforce their positions by merging with former rivals. The gloomsters’case is true to some extent but it is overstated. 多数大公司都雇佣企业管理者来满足投资者对可预测性的渴求。这些企业管理者往往会避免对新技术进行风险投资。在1950到2000年间，IT行业投资曾作为GDP的一部分持续增长，但于2000年早期开始衰退。比起颠覆市场，官僚型CEO更注重于尽可能压缩沉没成本和捍卫利基市场。他们通过储备现金，回购自家公司股份以及与竞争对手合并来巩固公司的市场地位。这些悲观人士的言论在一定程度上是对的，但还是言过其实了。  路词汇短语
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